2011•TumoriRequires access
Time trend analysis and prediction of liver cancer mor tality of residents in Henan Province, 1984-2009
Yong-xiao Jiang, Chen Ma, Peiliang Quan, Shuzheng Liu, Jian-Bang Lu, Qiong Chen, Xibin Sun
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Abstract
Objective: To investigate the trend in mortality of liver cancer between 1984 and 2009, and to predict the mortality trend of liver cancer in the next ten years (2010-2019) in residents in Henan Province. Methods: The complete data of liver cancer deaths and the population data in the corresponding period (1984-2009) in Henan Province were drawn from Henan Provincial Center for Tumor and Health Statistics Database. The period-specific mortality rates and the age-adjusted mortality rates directly standardized to China's population and the world population were calculated. The time trend of mortality was estimated by Joinpoint model. The mortality rates of liver cancer in the next ten years (2010-2019) in Henan Province were predicted by using linear regression model. Results: A total of 53 432 cases dying with liver cancer was reported by vital statistics registry center in Henan Province between 1984 and 2009. For men, the age-standardized mortality (China's population) was 18.54/100 000 between 1984 and 1988 and it was increased to 26.85/100 000 between 2004 and 2009; for women, the age-standardized mortality (China's population) was increased from 8.14/100 000 to 12.96/100 000. The trend parameters estimated by Joinpoint model demonstrated that the age-standardized mortality (China's population) of liver cancer showed an increasing trend in male and female. Predictive model demonstrated that the age-standardized mortality rates (China's population) in male and female during the period of 2010-2014 were 27.90/100 000 and 13.13/100 000, respectively; during the period of 2015-2019, the age-standardized mortality rates (China's population) in male and female were 28.50/100 000 and 13.00/100 000, respectively. Conclusion: The mortality rate of liver cancer in Henan Province was in an increasing trend, 1984-2009. This upward trend will slow down in the next ten years (2010-2019). DOI:10.3781/j.issn.1000-7431.2012.07.007