Projection of lung cancer mortality in Henan province during 2010 ～ 2019

Aim: To descripe lung cancer mortality trend from 1985 to 2009 and project the mortality during 2010 ～ 2019 in Henan province. Methods: The data of lung cancer deaths and population data from 1985 to 2009 were drawn from Henan Provincial Center for Tumor and Vital Statistics Database. The mortality of different periods was calculated and standardized by Chinese population ( 1982) and world Segi's population. Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the time trends of the mortality. Leslie matrix was used to predict the population of Henan province during 2010 ～ 2019. The cancer mortality during 2010 ～ 2019 in Henan province was projected by age-period-cohort regression model. Results: A total of 49 037 cases died from lung cancer were reported by the Center in Henan province from 1985 to 2009. Among male,the age-standardized mortality by Chinese population was 17. 65 per 100 000 during period of 1985 ～ 1989 and in-creased to 26. 01 per 100 000 during period of 2005 ～ 2009. For female,that increased from 5. 80 per 100 000 to 10. 01 per 100 000. The estimated trend by Joinpoint model showed that the standardized-mortality of lung cancer by Chinese popula-tion appeared the increasing trend in both male and female. There were three Joinpoints in male and one Joinpoint in fe-male. Predicted model demonstrated that the standardized-mortality by Chinese population in male and female was 27. 78 per 100 000 and 13. 24 per 100 000 during 2010 ～ 2014,28. 25 per 100 000 and 13. 67 per 100 000 during 2015 ～ 2019, respectively. Conclusion: The mortality of lung cancer in Henan province during the period of 2010 ～ 2019 would be in-creasing.