Prediction for Mortality of Stomach Cancer in Henan Province from 2010 to 2019

[Purpose] To investigate the mortality trend of stomach cancer from 1985 to 2009 and predict its mortality(2010～2019) in Henan province.[Methods] The data of stomach cancer death 1985 to 2009 and population from was drawn from Henan Provincial Center for Tumor and Vital Statistics Database.The mortality of periods,the age-standardized mortalities by Chinese population(1982) and by world Segi's population were calculated.Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the time trend of the mortality.The population data(2010～2019) of Henan province was predicted by Leslie matrix.The mortality(2010 ～2019) was predicted by APC regression model.[Results] There were 72 238 people died of stomach cancer from 1985 to 2009.The age-standardized mortality(male) by Chinese population decreased from 40.16/10 5(1985～1989) to 23.96 /10 5(2005～ 2009).The age-standardized mortality(female) decreased from 18.38/10 5(1985～1989) to 10.91/10 5(2005～2009).The mortality of stomach cancer by Chinese standardized population appeared a decreasing trend both in male and female.One significant Joinpoint appeared to exist both in male and female.Predicting model demonstrated that the average population growth rate in Henan province will be 4.38‰ during 2010～2019.The total population at 2019 will reach 14.87 million in 15 cities and counties of Henan province.The mortalities by Chinese standardized population in male and female will be 23.67/10 5 and 10.33/10 5 during 2010 ～2015,and those figures will be 21.11/10 5 and 9.56/10 5 respectively during 2015～2019.[Conclusion] A decreasing trend of mortality of stomach cancer will present during the period of 2010 ～2019 in Henan province,but the mortality is still high.Secondary prevention and control strategies should continue to be adopted.