Analysis of Economic and Ecological Sustainable Development of Chengdu in Recent 20 Years and Prediction Based on ARIMA Model

From the perspective of urban economic and ecological sustainable development,the ecological footprint and related indicators in Chengdu from 1987 to 2006 were measured by Ecological Footprint Method,and its dynamic changes were analyzed.On this basis,the past 20-year sustainable development of economy and ecology in Chengdu was measured quantitatively.According to the change characteristics of average ecological footprint and average ecological capacity from 1987 to 2006,the prediction model named [ARIMA(p,d,q)] was used to predict the ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Chengdu from 2008 to 2012.The results show that the ecological footprint demand has far exceeded its ecological carrying capacity,and the main reasons are attributed to energy consumption and population growth.There is great pressure on future eco-development.Finally,according to the status quo of sustainability of urban development as well as the developing trend in Chengdu,some suggestions are put forward.