Application of the grey system GM(1,1) for the prediction of syphilis incidences in Guangdong Province

Objective To predict syphilis incidence trend in Guangdong Province,so as to provide evidences for formulating control strategies.Methods According to syphilis incidence rates in Guangdong from 2004 to 2009,the predictive model of syphilis was established by the grey system theory.The 2010 syphilis incidence was used to test predictive effect of this model in the near future.Results The predictive results of syphilis incidences in Guangdong from 2011 to 2015 were 48.59 per 100 thousand,55.35 per 100 thousand,63.06 per 100 thousand,71.83 per 100 thousand and 81.83 per 100 thousand,respectively.Conclusion The syphilis incidence is predicted to rise by 13.92% per year in this province from 2011 to 2015,and prophylactic-therapeutic measures should be taken to control syphilis.