Forecasting the incidence of syphilis with GM(1,1) model

Objective:The study was conducted to explore a mathematical model which can forecast the incidence of syphilis in Jiangsu province,and provide the scientific evidence for the control of syphilis infection.Methods:Grey system GM(1,1)prediction model was built by using of the incidence of syphilis data from 2004 to 2009 in Jiangsu province,then it was evaluated.Results:The fitting result of GM(1,1)model of syphilis is better.The incidence of syphilis in 2010 is extrapolated from the model.Conclusion:Forecasting incidence of syphilis is 41.43 per 100 000 in the year 2010 in Jiangsu province.If there is no large-scale prevalence of syphilis in recent years,the GM(1,1)model method is more convenient to predict the incidence of syphilis.