Grey Model(1,1)on Incidence Trends of the Syphilis in Yunnan

Objective To forecast the incidence trend of syphilis in Yunnan province,and provide references for preventive measures.Methods According to syphilis incidence in Yunnan province from 2001to 2010,the predictive mode was established under grey system theory.Results The grey forecast model was X(k+1)=4.0042e0.2785k-3.2813.The goodness-of-fit test indicated that the precision was qualified(C=0.1050.35,P=1)and the grey model was capable of forecasting incidence trend of syphilis.Conclusion The predictive results demonstrated that the incidence of syphilis will increase by 23.23% per year in Yunnan province from 2011to 2014.Pertinent efforts should be taken to strengthen the comprehensive preventive and control measures for syphilis,such as health education,therapy management and so on.