Application of Grey Model (1,1) in The Prediction of Syphilis Incidence Rate in Tianjin City

[Objective] To explore the application of grey model (1,1)in the prediction of syphilis incidence rate in Tianjin city. [Methods] TThe data were collected from Tianjin infectious diseases Statistical yearbook reports 2001—2006. Grey model (1,1) was employed to predict the incidence of syphilis in Tianjin in the next 2 years. [Results] The model of the syphilis incidence was Y^(t)=9.6247 e0.3443(t-1)-3.5747. The predicted values of the next two years were 22.12 per 100 000 for 2007, 31.21 per 100 000 for 2008. [Conclusion] Grey Model (1,1) can be used to predict the incidence of syphilis in Tianjin. For the rising trend of incidence rate of syphilis, relative departments should take effective measures to avoid it to spread widely.