Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Patterns Using Markov Chain Model in Yanqi basin,Xinjiang

Based on the data of land use and land cover obtained from the TM and ETM images and topographic maps of the Yanqi Basinin 1990 and 2000,a primitive status matrix and a transition probability matrix of the land use and land cover were worked out with the aid of Mapgis software.Future tendency of the land use and land cover pattern was predicted by the Markov Chain Model.At first,the field data of 2000 was used to validate the model,showing that the model is efficient and suitable for prediction.The results of calculation using the Markov Chain Model indicated that the land use and land cover pattern was changing.The results showed that natural vegetation and alkaline land were decreased and the cultivated land,lakes and residential areas were increased.This implied that human activity is the main cause to change in the land cover pattern.According to the results of the simulation,the land use and land cover pattern can be adjusted,which may be served as a scientific basis for land planning and management of the recent Yanqi Basin.