Pridiction of Land Use and Land Cover Patterns in Recent Yellow River Delta Using Markov Chain Model

Based on data of land use and land cover obtained from the TM images and topographic maps of the Yellow River Delta of 1986, 1996 and 2001, a primitive status matrix and a transition probability matrix of the land use and land cover were worked out with the aid of ARC/INFO software. Future tendency of the land use and land cover pattern was predicted, following the Markov Chain Model. At first, the field data of 2001 was used to validate the model, showing that the model is efficient and suitable for prediction.The results of calculation using the Markov chain model indicate that the land use and land cover pattern is changing. Cultivated land, Amarix chinensis– Phragmites land, Suarda heteroptera Aeluropus littoralis var. Sinensis Tamarix chinensis land, mud flat will keep on decreasing, however the area of construction land, water body, Phragmites and Amarix chinensis land will continue to increase. It is predicted that by 2020, water body will occupy 6.54%; Phragmites land 8.02%; forest land 1.41%; cultivated land 35.20%; Amarix chinensis land 0.21%; Amarix chinensis–phragmites land 8.10%; Suarda heteroptera Aeluropus littoralis var. Sinensis Tamarix chinensis land 5.46%; mud flat 4.23%; and construction land 30.82%. This implies that human activity is the main cause to changes in the land cover pattern. According to results of the simulation, the land use and land cover pattern can be adjusted, which may serve as a scientific basis for land planning and management of the recent Yellow River Delta.