Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Patterns in Mengyin County Using Markov Chain Model

In order to know the change pattern of land use in Mengyin County,with the data of land use and land cover obtained from TM images in 1997 and 2007,by using Markov Chain Model,a primitive status matrix and a transition probability matrix of land use and land cover were established and then the future tendency of land use and land cover pattern was predicted.The results indicated that land use and land cover pattern is changing,i.e.,cultivated land,grass land,water land and unused land will keep on decreasing,by 2017 cultivated land will reduce by 3.22%;however forest land and construction land will continue to increase,forest land will increase fast and reach to 43.45% of the total land area.Land use and land cover pattern can be adjusted according to the prediction,which may serve as a scientific basis for land planning and management of Mengyin County.