2009•System Sciences and Comprehensive Studies in AgricultureRequires access

Prediction of Land Use Structure Based on Markov and Gray Models

Peiji Shi

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Abstract

On the basis of Markov and Gray models,this paper predicted the land use structure changes of Zhangye city.Verification and comparison between two kinds of model predicted results with the same set land use data can improve the prediction Credibility.The result showed that the area of cultivated land,unused land and grassland will decrease.And the area of forest land and construction land will increase from 2007 to 2015.In addition,the area of cultivated land,garden land and grassland will change into construction land,forest land from 2007 to 2015.

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What this paper is about

On the basis of Markov and Gray models,this paper predicted the land use structure changes of Zhangye city.Verification and comparison between two kinds of model predicted results with the same set land use data can improve the prediction Credibility.The result showed that the area of cultivated land,unused land and grassland will decrease.And the area of forest land and construction land will increase from 2007 to 2015.In addition,the area of cultivated land,garden land and grassland will change into construction land,forest land from 2007 to 2015.

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Available abstract

On the basis of Markov and Gray models,this paper predicted the land use structure changes of Zhangye city.Verification and comparison between two kinds of model predicted results with the same set land use data can improve the prediction Credibility.The result showed that the area of cultivated land,unused land and grassland will decrease.And the area of forest land and construction land will increase from 2007 to 2015.In addition,the area of cultivated land,garden land and grassland will change into construction land,forest land from 2007 to 2015.

Key concepts: Grassland, Land use, Gray (unit), Land use, land-use change and forestry, Markov chain, Markov model, Geography, Credibility

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