Application of Gray model GM (1, 1) on prediction of syphilis incidence

OBJECTIVE To explore the application of gray model GM (1, 1) in prediction of syphilis incidence. METHODS Gray model GM (1, 1) was used to construct the model based on syphilis incidence rate of Nanning, Guangxi province from 2005 to 2010, and predict the incidence of further. RESULTS The GM (1, 1) model on syphilis incidence rate of Nanning Guangxi province was constructed.The model prediction was accurate (C≈0.2812, P = 1). CONCLUSION The model exactly fits and predicts the changes and trends of syphilis incidence on time series, thus, gray model GM (1, 1) applied to predict syphilis incidence in Guangxi province is feasible.