The Forecast and Analysis of the Development of Chinese Population in View of Leslie Pattern

On the base of EXCEL,the author plans to give out the function's curve of the birth ratio and the death ratio between 2001 and 2005,and forecasts the total population will be up to 1.378 billion in 2015 and 1.409 billion in 2025 by using Leslie pattern,it will be a little peak value of the population during 2020 and 2030,the population will come up to its peak value of 1.410 billion in 2023 or so.The level of aging further accelerates and the ratio of old population of over 65 will come up to 17.2%in 2025 and the number is 2.4 hundred million.In 2041 the ratio of old population of over 65 will reach a peak value of 26 %and the number is 3.43 hundred million.The population of child-bearing women between 20 and 29 forms a little peak during 2006 and 2020.