The Application of Leslie Revised Model in Population Prediction

The application of efficiently operative and highly credible method in predicting the future population serves as an important basis for our country and districts to formulate appropriate policies.Mortality,The average fertility rate of women and initial age distribution are all crucial parameters in determining the tendency of population variation.In this paper,some statistical data of China's Population Statistics Almanac is analyzed and researched,through which a Leslie revised model on the basis of the year 2004 as an initial year is set up to make a long-term forecast on the future population in China. It is found that from the year 2005 to 2050,the population will generally take on a tendency as first increase and then slightly decrease and finally tend to be steady. In the year 2020 s,the total population will reach the peak again.Besides, as is predicted according to the GM (1,1) model on data's irregularity, the sex rate of population in cities,towns and countries will rise slowly in the next 25 years. All the statistics in the prediction are applied in a brief analysis on population characteristic targets such as population aging, population quality, dependency ratio,quality of population,etc.