2010•Journal of Guangdong University of Business StudiesRequires access

Forecasting the Total Amount of Population and Age Structure in China Based on Leslie Matrix Model

Jialin Sun

Abstract

By using Leslie matrix population model,this paper makes a comprehensive study of various main factors which can have impact on the total population and the age structure.It is predicted that under the present birth control policy,the Chinese total population will peak at 1,420,000,000 in 2024,which is quite different from result released by the National Population Development Strategy Research Team who predict that the number will peak at 1,520,000,000 in 2033.Meanwhile,the aging tendency of population in China will be accelerated.

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Key concepts: Leslie matrix, China, Age structure, Population, Chinese population, Population projection, Population control, Matrix (chemical analysis)