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Prediction on the population of Taiwan Prince

Hsin Chi

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Abstract

Based on the life table theory and demographic data, the growth of Taiwan population is predicted to the year 2050. The predicted population will reach 23 5 to 24 million during the period 2020~2025, then it will begin decreasing to about 21 or 22 millions by the year 2050. The birth rate will gradually decrease and will stabilize at about 10 newborn per 1000 people by the year 2050. The trend of age structure shows that the elder population will proportionally increase. There will be more than 18% elder population (age 65 or older) by the year 2050. Since 1985, the elder dependency ratio has and will continue to increase constantly, while the young dependency ratio will decrease until stabilizing after the year 2010.The predicted total dependency ratio decreases between 1985 and 2010, after that it increases again.

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What this paper is about

Based on the life table theory and demographic data, the growth of Taiwan population is predicted to the year 2050. The predicted population will reach 23 5 to 24 million during the period 2020~2025, then it will begin decreasing to about 21 or 22 millions by the year 2050. The birth rate will gradually decrease and will stabilize at about 10 newborn per 1000 people by the year 2050. The trend of age structure shows that the elder population will proportionally increase. There will be more than 18% elder population (age 65 or older) by the year 2050. Since 1985, the elder dependency ratio has and will continue to increase constantly, while the young dependency ratio will decrease until stabilizing after the year 2010.The predicted total dependency ratio decreases between 1985 and 2010, after that it increases again.

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Available abstract

Based on the life table theory and demographic data, the growth of Taiwan population is predicted to the year 2050. The predicted population will reach 23 5 to 24 million during the period 2020~2025, then it will begin decreasing to about 21 or 22 millions by the year 2050. The birth rate will gradually decrease and will stabilize at about 10 newborn per 1000 people by the year 2050. The trend of age structure shows that the elder population will proportionally increase. There will be more than 18% elder population (age 65 or older) by the year 2050. Since 1985, the elder dependency ratio has and will continue to increase constantly, while the young dependency ratio will decrease until stabilizing after the year 2010.The predicted total dependency ratio decreases between 1985 and 2010, after that it increases again.

Key concepts: Dependency ratio, Demography, Population, Age structure, Sex ratio, Dependency (UML), Population growth, Population ageing

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