Reanalysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions

According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us,the earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions is reanalyzed in the present paper.Meanwhile,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the moderate-strong or strong earthquake,are also presented.The results suggest that the destructive earthquake will occur in some seismic zones,such as Xiaojiang,Xichang,Yunlong,Yibin-Changning and Zigong-Suining seismic zones.However,for the future earthquake situation in Xianshuihe seismic zone,there exists uncertainty due to the magnitude error of the Luhuo earthquake occurred in 1973.Only when the actual magnitude of the Luhuo earthquake is less than MS 7.9 from the China Earthquake Data Center,an earthquake of MS 7.9~8.1 will occur in Xianshuihe seismic zone.