Reanalysis of the future earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the region of Southwest China

According to the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system developed by us,the earthquake situation for some seismic zones in the region of southwest China and its border areas is reanalyzed in the present paper.We add ten new seismic zones.The boundaries of some seismic zonesare also redefined.Meanwhile,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the moderate-strong or strong earthquake,are also presented.The results suggest that an impending large earthquake will occur in Derong seismic zone,a large or great earthquake will occurs in the seismic zones No.2and No.3in China-Burma border,strong earthquakes will happen in Baiyu,Kaiyuan-Mengzi,Changdu,Yunlong,Nierong-Baqing-Zuogong,No.1in China-Burma border and Xiaguan-Chuxiong seismic zones,and moderate earthquakes will occur in Mile-Qiubei and Qumalaiyibei seismic zones.Due to boundary adjustment of Xianshuihe seismic zone,the future earthquake situation is discussed in this paper.Meanwhile,we also analyze seismic hazard situation in Fugong,Qujing,Gaer-Geji,Rikaze,Yanyuan,Lijiang and Zhaotong seismic zones.The analysis results above could be considered by the related department.