A prediction of strong earthquakes in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions and analysis of the seismogenic process of the Wenchuan M_W7.9 earthquake

According to the division principle of seismogenic time and space scale presented by us, a rational division scheme of seismic zones or belts in the Sichuan and Yunnan regions, China, is determined. Furthermore, the prediction results, including the magnitude, place, critical strain, and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for each seismic zone or belt, are obtained using the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system. It is shown that destructive earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones mentioned below other than Xichang, Lijiang and Xianshuihe seismic zones. Furthermore, the seismogenic process associated with the Wenchuan earthquake is analyzed. It is shown that the most immediate cause leading to the Wenchuan earthquake occurred on 12 May, 2008 is attributed to the double earthquake swarm events with a magnitude of M_S 7. 2 occurred in Songpan-Pingwu in 1976.