Energy Conservation Estimation in the Course of China's Industrialization

Since China's reform and opening up, and promotion of industrialization,energy consumption(except for life-depleting) appeared a greater volatility. Based upon the complete decomposition model,this paper analyzes the economic growth effects,the effects of energy consumption intensity and the effects of structure which drive the energy consumption change.With the use of H-P filter and the complete decomposition model,this paper estimates the energy conservation situation in China's industrialization process.The results showed that the accumulative quantity of energy saving in China was 944.57 million tons of standard coal during 1980～2005.During this period,China energy saving gap has often been fluctuating.Particularly after 1998,subjected to the impact of re-heavyindustrialization,the actual saving rate gradually reduced compared to a potential saving rate.But in 2005,the actual saving rate was greater than the rate of potential energy saving,energy-efficient strategies which was in top priority to energy conservation,controled and improved effectively the energy tension.In recent years,the continuous improvement on energy use efficiency in heavy industry showed that the high energy consumption in heavy industry is only in short-term,which still contains a huge energy saving space.With the improving level of industrialization in China,it has a huge potential to conserve energy and reduce energy consumption.