TRAFFIC AND AUTOMOBILE FORECAST 1989-2010

During 1985-1988 the growth of traffic in Finland was clearly faster than in the first half of the 1980's. Traffic in 1988 was 6% more than estimated in the previous forecast (1986) by RWA (see IRRD 819167). According to the forecast 1989-2010, traffic and automobile registration will grow rapidly during the 1990's. Thereafter growth will slow down. During 1989-2010 traffic is assumed to grow by 47% and automobile stock by 54%. Car density will be 550 cars per 1000 inhabitants in 2010. The growth of traffic is assumed to be regionally nearly equal in the whole country, and the largest increase by road category in the main road network. In the forecast of annual car kilometers the effect of the trend in ownership of more than one car in a household was taken into account, in addition to income and age structure. The car traffic forecast was obtained by multiplying the car density forecast by car kilometers forecast. The forecasts for lorry and van traffic are linked with the forecasts of the growth of production, which will in future be based increasingly on qualitative factors such as the degree of productivity. As a result, freight transport will grow less than the total growth of the production. According to the new forecast traffic in 2012 would be 22% more than estimated in the previous forecast. The new forecast also assumes a 15% increase in automobile stock in 2010. (TRRL)