A FORECAST OF PRIVATE CAR FUEL CONSUMPTION

The aim of this study is to predict the energy consumption of the private car population in Finland, depending on the economic development in the country. This is accomplished by calculations according to 4 different economic scenarios. The calculations include the predictions of car population car mileage and fuel consumption. The prediction of car population is based on the present car population and the predicted number of new cars each year. Because the average life-time of cars is increasing, the total number of cars shall increase even though the number of new cars per year may remain constant. When predicting car mileage it is supposed that the mileage of a new car is higher than that of an older car. Secondly, the total mileage is adapted to the economic scenario under consideration. Higher economic growth rates are combined with higher car mileages even though the total number of cars is higher. (TRRL)