METHODOLOGY OF FORECASTING AND FORECAST OF DEMAND FOR ENERGY CARRIERS BY LORRIES IN POLAND UP TO THE YEAR 2020 (PART I)

Discussed methodology of forecasting and forecast of demand for energy carriers have been presented in two parts. In this part has been give forecast of freight road transport volumes up to the year 2020, estimated structure of the fleet in the initial period of the forecast and variant forecast of the fleet size and its structure according to categories and age. In second part has been given forecast of demand for energy carriers by lorries. The forecast of freight road transport volumes has been developed through an innovative application of the expert cross-influence method. It was assumed that economic and social events exerting a particularly strong influence on the future development of freight road transport volumes in Poland currently are and will continue to be in the future as follows: economic development of the state, changes in the structure of GDP production, development of the international exchange of goods, increase in investment and domestic consumption, decrease in material consumption and energy consumption of the production, development and modernization of road infrastructure and rail transport, internalization of transport external costs, changes in spatial arrangement of production, storage and consumption. The forecast of transport included two variants. The pace of growth of freight road transport in 2020 should fall within the range of 147 - 152% in comparison to figures recorded in 2004. As far as absolute values are concerned that would correspond to about 190 - 196 billion tonne - kilometers.