US energy and economic growth, 1980-2000. Final report

Six areas, important to the determination of future US energy consumption, have been included for special consideration in this report: population growth, labor force growth, labor productivity, energy-using technologies, institutional factors, and energy prices. The investigation disaggregates energy by fuel type, and by primary versus secondary, or end-use categories. Primary energy refers to unrefined energy products (e.g., crude oil); secondary energy refers to energy fuels that have been refined (e.g., gasoline) and transformed. Four secondary fuels are considered: liquids, gases, solids, and electricity. Six primary energy types are considered: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, and geothermal. Energy use is broken down by end-use sector (residential, commercial, industrial, transport, and electric utilities), and within each sector it is further disaggregated by end-use application. In addition, the effects of alternative energy price paths are discussed in this report. Three alternative scenarios are considered: the low price case, the base price case, and the high price case. In the base case total primary US energy demand is projected to increase from 76 quads in 1980 to 94 quads by the year 2000. This estimate is the result of considerably improved efficiency in energy use spurred by past price hikes and continued future pricemore » increases. The low and high price cases result in energy estimates for the year 2000 of 104 quads and 90 quads, respectively. This 14 quad difference between the high and low cases is solely the consequence of changing the underlying price assumptions of the case, without changing any of the other assumptions. 86 tabs.« less