Two sensitivity runs of the MARKAL Model of the US Energy System showing shifts in fuel use

The MARKAL (Market Allocation) model provides a dynamic picture of the evolution of energy conversion and utilization technologies over time as functions of alternative assumptions regarding energy demands and primary energy prices. Shifts in fuel use are examined for three sets of assumptions regarding future US economic growth and world oil prices: a base case assuming moderate economic growth (2.3% per year) and moderate world oil price increases ($65 per barrel in 2010), a low economic growth case with an annual GNP increase of 1.8% and smaller world oil price increases than for the base case ($53 per barrel in 2010), and a low oil price case with economic growth comparable to the base case and oil prices consistent with the low economic growth case. Differences in demands among the three cases varied by 11 quadrillion Btu (quads), or about 15%, in 2010 concentrated in the industrial sector. The sensitivity cases provide estimates of the effects on primary energy consumption by fuel form of variations in economic growth and oil prices from base case assumptions. The principal changes in fuel use resulted from changes in the demand rather than responses to relative fuel costs. There were few examples of fuelmore » switching as a result of technology substitution. One example was retrofitted conservation packages in oil-heated houses in place of electric heating. 19 figs., 11 tabs.« less