Fuel and energy price forecasts. Final report. Volume I. Report

This study of fuel and energy prices over the period 1985 to 2000 projects energy prices in 1975 constant dollars, on a regional basis, for the United States. The major sources of energy analyzed include crude oil and major petroleum products, coal and coal-based synthetic fuels, gas, and uranium. It was stipulated that price projections were to be developed within a given set of aggregate energy and electricity demand projections, as set out in the Edison Electric Institute study, Economic Growth in the Future. The price of each energy type is projected at different levels of commerce (e.g., points of production and points of consumption), requiring a forecast of the cost of production, transportation, and distribution. Delivered energy prices were estimated for four major end-use sectors: residential/commercial, industrial, electric utility, and transportation. Two major findings of the study are: (1) the real prices of all sources of energy will increase over the forecast period; both gas and petroleum prices will continue to increase at a rate greater than that of coal, primarily reflecting the higher cost of incremental supplies; uranium prices are also projected to increase, but could remain below that for coal delivered to the electric utility sector; and (2) the ranges of energy price projections are attended in varying degree of great uncertainty; the bands of uncertainty, set out for each forecast, are considered as important as the price projections. (MCW)