CAR OWNERSHIP AND CAR USAGE; DIRECTIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

Car ownership is known to be one of the most important determinants of mobility. Consequently much research has been carried out to analyse the complex relationships which lead to car ownership and car usage, and to develop forecasting models. However, recent experience has shown that these models cannot accurately predict changes in car ownership and car usage in situations when real incomes are lowering and the real costs of car usage are rising. Further research is needed to develop models which incorporate the dynamics of choice behaviour. Two possible directions of research are indicated, which are panel analysis and stated preference analysis. Panel analysis can be successfully used to develop models based on observed behaviour, while stated preference analysis can be used to explore future choice behaviour under changing conditions. The insights obtained in both types of research will improve our understanding of the relationships determining car ownership and car usage, and will enable us to forecast future levels of car ownership and car usage more accurately. (Author/TRRL)