THE ROLE OF AN UNDERSTANDING OF SOCIAL FACTORS IN FORECASTING CAR OWNERSHIP

This paper describes established car ownership forecasting techniques and the case for change. The extent to which an understanding of the social factors influencing behaviour can contribute to car ownership forecasting, both in the development of alternative models and in increasing the information base available for forecasting, is discussed with reference to various examples. These include two studies of how car ownership changes at the margins by examining why people give up or acquire cars, studies which have been used to outline the possible structure of alternative models, an example of the type of forecast which has been produced using such an understanding of behaviour, and examples of empirical evidence explaining behaviour which can be used as a background to forecasting. The examples show the data requirements of this type of approach, the types of statement about the future which can be made, and the limitations and value of such estimates. For the covering abstract of the book see TRIS 380563. For abstract of paper by Pickup, L and Town, S see TRIS 380565. (TRRL)