Effect of Climate Change on Rainfed Maize Production : Assessment of Maize Production vs. a Changing Rainfall Pattern in Malawi

Maize, a staple food crop in Malawi in sub-Sahara region has been grown under rainfed conditions for many years but many factors affect its production. Changing rainfall pattern has been a main factor which is believed to have come about due to the changing climate in recent years. A case study of over 60 years of rainfall data in Malawi's central region was analyzed where rainfall data over time was compared with maize production yields. Other non-climatic factors were also studied to explain their impact on production. Both observed monthly and daily rainfall data were used. Thiessen polygon method was used to calculate daily areal rainfall from the available 4 gauging stations. Since the gauging network was not adequate a regression analysis of the areal rainfall against the recorded time series from the stations was carried out. A regression equation created from the station with highest correlation was used to predict the daily rainfall data which was analyzed in detail to identify daily pattern changes. It was found that rainfall distribution characteristics have changed over time becoming more unpredictable and, hence, reducing production. In general, everytime there was an erratic rainfall pattern, maize production was affected. The paper recommends building more sustainable irrigation systems so that agricultural production can be under control during droughts. It also recommends removing policy that depends on rainfed food production and economic activities to control the problems associated with the changing rainfall pattern.