The Road Ahead: Access and Success in American Higher Education

the Forum Policy Analysis It is perhaps an understatement to say that the economic and social stock of higher education in the United States has risen substantially over the past generation. Just two decades ago, it would have been virtually unthinkable for observers such as Patrick Callan to assert that a postsecondary credential has become the sine qua non of participation in the middle class life of the nation. By the mid-1990s, however, President Clinton's call to make the 13th and 14th years of education universal firmly underscored the ascendance of higher education in American society. This rise in stock can be traced to two factors: 1) a shift in the structure of the economy, away from goods production and toward service and information/knowledge production; and 2) a concomitant change in public expectations regarding the availability of higher education. A wealth of data documents this rise: * The gap in average annual income between high school and college graduates (in constant 1999 dollars) has more than doubled since the late 1970s (Mortenson 2000b). * Enrollment of recent high school graduates in college averaged 63 percent in the 1990s, compared with 50 percent in the 1970s (Mortenson 2000a). * The number of degree-granting postsecondary education providers in the United States increased from 3,565 in 1988-- 89 to 4,070 in 1998-99 (u.s. Department of Education 2001). These points clearly indicate that higher education in America is a growth industry, one that is making its way up on the policy agenda. On the surface, these data should be harbingers of a bright future for the nation's postsecondary education system. Any optimism about future prospects, however, must be tempered by recognition of the challenges that stand in the way of greater access to, and success in, higher education. Currently, there are troubling disparities among various populations with respect to access and success, as well as a nagging disconnect between access and success for all groups. Looking ahead, these difficulties are likely to be compounded by demographic change that will bring more demand to the system, especially among groups that have historically been underrepresented in college attendance and completion. Overshadowing all of this is a public policy thrust that increasingly casts higher education as a private benefit rather than a public good at the same time that public expectations of colleges and universities are on the rise. In sum, higher education has become an increasingly important part of the promise of the American Dream. Several forces, however, will severely test the ability of policymakers and education leaders to deliver on that promise. Potential Obstacles to Expanding College Access and Success While the emerging economic structure and public sentiment clearly favor increased college attendance and completion, these factors alone will not boost participation and attainment. Over the years, scholars and analysts have amassed a mind-numbing array of data about postsecondary opportunity and achievement, and debate continues to rage about what does-and does not-contribute to meaningful access and success in higher education. Some conclusions draw little argument, such as the calls for improved high school preparation, more early intervention and mentoring, and the like. Others, such as proposals to expand affirmative action in admissions and financial aid, spark more controversy. Whatever the paths) chosen to enhance access and success, those responsible for the choice will have to take into account three distinct challenges: 1 EXISTING PERFORMANCE GAPS Any attempt to bring a large number of additional students successfully through the nation's colleges and universities must start by addressing the disparities in enrollment, persistence, and completion-rooted in gender, race/ethnicity, and economic standing-that already plague the higher education system. …