TRANSPORTATION IN THE 21ST CENTURY

This article speculates about how transportation in the United States may evolve in the first few decades of this new century. It begins by presenting a broad view of transportation and change. It then discusses some important trends and characteristics of transportation that will influence its evolution in the United States. It concludes with some brief comments on specific proposals that have been advanced for transportation, including smart growth, high-speed trains and maglev, privatization and outsourcing, intelligent transportation systems, road pricing, and new automobile technology. The trends and proposals discussed suggest a future America with a larger, more dispersed population: a population that continues to rely heavily on motor vehicles for transportation. Information technology will facilitate these trends and will allow individuals to make other lifestyle adjustments that will help Americans adapt to the choices available without gridlock levels of traffic congestion. Incremental high-speed passenger rail will be introduced in selected intercity corridors. As in the past, the nation will rely principally on new automotive technology to address emissions, greenhouse gas, and energy concerns unless a crisis occurs and leads to a new public policy environment. More consolidation will occur in private-sector transportation companies, and public agencies will outsource more of their work to the private sector.