TRENDS AND POLICY CHOICES : A RESEARCH AGENDA

In this article, the author, director of the University of California Transportation Center, lays out trends that will drive the transportation research agenda. U.S. population growth, the fastest of any other developed country, will put increased demands on infrastructure, especially in the south and the west, where most of the growth will occur. Demographics will also change dramatically, with the rise in the over-65 population and, in fast-growing states, the rise of people under 18. Shifting employment patterns will also require new approaches to commuting. More work is also needed on location patterns for housing and industry and how they can be influenced. Heavy increases in automobile use and ownership and the rise in non-work travel have changed the demands on the transportation system dramatically and promise to continue to do so. Other areas needing added attention include freight transport's changing patterns, the role of new technologies, concern for melding environmental concerns with transportation, equity and participation in planning and funding transportation infrastructure and the most feasible and fairest way to pay for it. The most effective approach is multi- disciplinary and a mix of university-based scholarship that is done both with local transportation agencies, state DOTs, MPOs and the private sector, and independently of them. Additional, competitive university research initiatives would pay off by producing a more effective transportation system.