Promoting Nuclear Disarmament through Bilateral Arms Control: Will New START Extension Pave the Path to Disarmament?

The United States and Russia agreed to extend the 2010 New START Treaty in February 2021. Many analysts believed that this step would reinvigorate the US-Russian arms control process, lead to deeper reductions in nuclear weapons, and possibly pave the path to nuclear disarmament. However, the United States and Russia might find it difficult to agree on an agenda for the next round of arms control negotiations, and neither may be willing to accept deeper reductions in their numbers of nuclear weapons. Changes in the international security environment, stresses in the US-Russian relationship, and increases in the size and scope of China’s nuclear arsenal may all impede progress. As a result, the next steps in arms control may focus on transparency, communication, norms, and risk reduction measures, both as a way to mitigate the risk of nuclear war and to, possibly, create the conditions needed for further reductions in the future.