Population projections for the Sudan: the need to quantify the future.

This paper presents the results of population projections for the Sudan based on simple estimates of the total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth. The projections were calculated through use of the POPTRAN micro-computer package that can provide projections for up to 100 years. The starting data were derived from United Nations Assessment statistics for 1985. 4 separate projections were prepared, based on different assumptions about the extent of reduction in the total fertility rate between 1985 and 2085. Under each of these 4 scenarios, however, the life expectancy at birth is assumed to rise from 49 years in 1985 to 65 years in 2085. The 2nd scenario, which assumes the total fertility rate is reduced from its present level of 6.56 to 4.00 by the year 2035 and then remains at 4.00 until 2085, is considered most likely. This model produces population increases from 21 million in 1985 to 32 million in the year 2000, 73 million in 2035, and 194 million in 2085. The annual growth rate would reach a level slightly under 2% by 2035. The generation of long-term projections dramatically underscores the social and economic changes that must take place even if the total fertility rate is reduced to 4 to meet the increased need for schools, hospitals, jobs, and services.