[Population projections for Japan, 1970-2050, estimated in February 1975].

The cohort-component method was used to make this population estimate for Japan for the period from 1970 to 2050. Empirically, ''a closed population'' is assumed, disregarding the international migration, which changes only by birth and death. Taking the complete enumerated ''de jure'' population by age and sex of the 1970 Population Census as the base population, this estimate provides the projected ''de jure'' population, as of October 1 for every year from 1971 to 2000 and for every 5 years from 2005 to 2050. Additionally, the estimate includes a series of 5 projections based on 5 separate variants which differ from each other entirely with respect to the assumptions relating to fertility. The 5 fertility assumptions are that the future average number of children per woman at the end of childbearing (total fertility rate) will gradually move towards 1 of the 5 levels and courses. Projections of the total population of Japan for the year 2050 range from 116,000,000 to 166,000,000. This difference of about 50,000,000 reflects the differences in fertility assumptions used. The growth rate of all projections will slow down in the 1980's. According to Medium projection, the net reproduction rate will be 1.0499 in 1985 and 1.0022 in 2000, and the annual growth rate will be 0.5% in the year 2000 and under 0.05% for the period from 2035. Also, according to the Medium projection, the population under 14 years of age will increase between 1970 and 1985 from 25.2 million to 29.7 million but that it will decline by 7.1% between 1985 and the year 2000. The productive age population of the 15 to 64 year age group will increase from 72.1 million in 1970 to 81.7 million in 1985 and to 88.8 million in 2000. The aged population of 65 years and older will account for 1/3 of the total population increase during the period from 1970 to 2000.