The Census Bureau's New Projections of the US Population

On the basis of best estimate US population projections between 1992 and 2050 updated from the 1989 report the demographic changes expected are identified and the consequences of those changes are indicated. There is also a discussion of the changes in assumptions about fertility mortality and net in-migration and some features of the middle and lower projections. The question is answered about the accuracy of the projections and the continued aging of the population is summarized. Cautions is urged in the use of these projections for those who would suffer considerably from choosing one projection over another; the suggestion for instance for the insurance industry is to use a series with a higher life expectancy. Demographic changes in the best estimate projection would be as follows: 1) a rise in fertility (Asian and Hispanic rates would decline) 2) an increase in annual net in-migration and 3) an increase in life expectancy among men and women. Thus the expectation would be that population would increase from 252 million in 1991 to 383 million in 2050. Population stabilization would not occur in 2038 as previously reported. Population aging would continue but at a slower rate than previously reported. The median age is almost 33 years which is the highest in US history. The population >65 years will grow at 1.2% a year until 2010 compared to 2.4% a year from 1950-90. Between 2010 and 2030 the aged population will grow by 2.8% and constitute 20% of the population compared to the 12.5% of the population in 1992. The population >85 years will be the fastest growing group: 3.1 million in 1990 to about 18 million in 2050 (5% of the population). The population aged 18-24 years who are working will increase and the nonworking population per 100 aged 18-64 years will decrease over 20 years and then increase from 56 to 71 as the baby boom retires. School age population will increase until about 2010. Ethnic composition will be more diverse. The non-Hispanic White population will decline from 75% in 1992 to 53% in 2050. The Hispanic population will contribute to about 30% of population growth and will replace Blacks as the largest minority group. The US will become increasingly a land of immigrants as at the beginning of the 19th century.