A forward prediction of strong earthquakes in the Tibet region

For the Tibet region,the rational division scheme of seismic zones is determined and the earthquake trend is analyzed in detail by using the brittle failure theory and multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and the associated prediction method.For the seismic zone where a large earthquake will occur,the prediction results including the magnitude,place,critical strain (corresponding to the occurrence time of earthquake),and the hypocentral depth of an oncoming earthquake are provided.The analysis result indicates that a destructive earthquake will occur in the seismic zone in northern Ritu,the seismic zone in northern Nierong,the Changdu seismic zone and the Dangxiong seismic zone.Thus,it is suggested that the department concerned should pay more attention to monitoring the seismic activity and tracking the earthquake situation in these zones,and take precautions against earthquakes.