Prediction Model on Seripe Rust Influence Extent of Winter Wheat in Longnan Mounain Area

Based on the data from 1957 to 2006 in Longnan City,the prevalence rules of the stripe rust of winter wheat were analyzed.The prediction model was established and validated.The results showed that the stripe rust of winter wheat in Bailongjiang river area oversummered at the regions with an altitude over 1600 meters,while there was no obvious over-wintering of the stripe rust in the river valley and plain areas below 1000 meters,where the local stripe rust was the main sources of the stripe rust in the spring.The areas with an altitude over 1600 meters in the Xihanshui river were the main regions of over-summering of the wheat stripe rust for the Longnan area.The area percentage of the infected varieties of winter wheat,the over-summered stripe rust count from the last year and the infection rate in autumn,together with the mean temperature in the last August,last October,January and March,were significantly related to the prevalence of the stripe rust of winter wheat in the spring.The prevalence of the stripe rust of winter wheat was positively related to the mean temperature from October to March,while it was negatively to the mean temperature from April to August.The monthly precipitation was positively related to the prevalence of the stripe rust of winter wheat.