A prediction model of meteorological grades on winter wheat stripe rust in southern of Gansu

Southern of Gansu Province is the core surviving area of stripe rust bacteria(Puccinia striiformis)of winter wheat(Triticum aestivum)in summer.Amount of bacteria at the end of summer is a great influence on the development of stripe rust in next spring in central and eastern of China.Based on the meteorological and wheat stripe rust data of 14 representative stations in the winter wheat planting region of southern Gansu Province from 1990 to 2007,meteorological conditions were divided into 5 level according to disease field rate;and a forecast model of meteorological level on the wheat stripe rust was established by using stepwise regression method.Through the historical regression test,the error of the forecast model with 2 levels was 12% and the completed right prediction was 25%.The fitting errors up to 2 levels for the actual disease grade 1-2 was 23%,while others were all in one level.The prediction effect of forecast model was good.The model is extremely important to predict the development of wheat stripe rust and to improve wheat yield in central and eastern of China.