Co-integration and Causal Relationship of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth:Empirical Analysis Based on the Data during 1978-2012
Wang Bao-ta
Abstract
Wang Bao-ta
Abstract
In order to verify whether the relationship changes between China's economic growth and foreign trade,this paper selects the data of import,export and GDP from 1978 to 2012,use E-G cointegration and Granger causality test models to analysis empirically.The results show that long-term dynamic equilibrium still exists between the foreign trade and economic growth,among the three variables exist two-way causal relationship,and the import role has a slightly significant affection in promoting economic growth than exports.
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In order to verify whether the relationship changes between China's economic growth and foreign trade,this paper selects the data of import,export and GDP from 1978 to 2012,use E-G cointegration and Granger causality test models to analysis empirically.The results show that long-term dynamic equilibrium still exists between the foreign trade and economic growth,among the three variables exist two-way causal relationship,and the import role has a slightly significant affection in promoting economic growth than exports.
Key concepts: Cointegration, Granger causality, Economics, Causality (physics), Order (exchange), China, Econometrics, International economics