2013•Value EngineeringRequires access

Co-integration and Causal Relationship of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth:Empirical Analysis Based on the Data during 1978-2012

Wang Bao-ta

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Abstract

In order to verify whether the relationship changes between China's economic growth and foreign trade,this paper selects the data of import,export and GDP from 1978 to 2012,use E-G cointegration and Granger causality test models to analysis empirically.The results show that long-term dynamic equilibrium still exists between the foreign trade and economic growth,among the three variables exist two-way causal relationship,and the import role has a slightly significant affection in promoting economic growth than exports.

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What this paper is about

In order to verify whether the relationship changes between China's economic growth and foreign trade,this paper selects the data of import,export and GDP from 1978 to 2012,use E-G cointegration and Granger causality test models to analysis empirically.The results show that long-term dynamic equilibrium still exists between the foreign trade and economic growth,among the three variables exist two-way causal relationship,and the import role has a slightly significant affection in promoting economic growth than exports.

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Available abstract

In order to verify whether the relationship changes between China's economic growth and foreign trade,this paper selects the data of import,export and GDP from 1978 to 2012,use E-G cointegration and Granger causality test models to analysis empirically.The results show that long-term dynamic equilibrium still exists between the foreign trade and economic growth,among the three variables exist two-way causal relationship,and the import role has a slightly significant affection in promoting economic growth than exports.

Key concepts: Cointegration, Granger causality, Economics, Causality (physics), Order (exchange), China, Econometrics, International economics

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Co-integration and Causal Relationship of Foreign Trade and Economic Growth:Empirical Analysis Based on the Data during 1978-2012 — Research Paper | ScholarLens