An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in China
Chen Yin-e
Abstract
Chen Yin-e
Abstract
Data of foreign trade and economic growth in China show a consistent development track and a strong correlation. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and both imports and exports have positive impacts on economic growth, but the later has a greater effect than the former. Exports and the economic growth share significant two-way granger causality, while imports are just the single-way granger causality of the export and the granger causality with economic growth is insignificant. Therefore, China should continue to promote the development of export trade, and attach more importance to the role of imports meanwhile.
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Data of foreign trade and economic growth in China show a consistent development track and a strong correlation. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and both imports and exports have positive impacts on economic growth, but the later has a greater effect than the former. Exports and the economic growth share significant two-way granger causality, while imports are just the single-way granger causality of the export and the granger causality with economic growth is insignificant. Therefore, China should continue to promote the development of export trade, and attach more importance to the role of imports meanwhile.
Key concepts: Granger causality, Economics, China, Causality (physics), International economics, International trade, Export trade, Econometrics