2010•Journal of Huazhong University of Science and TechnologyRequires access

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in China

Chen Yin-e

Open publisher page 1 citations

Abstract

Data of foreign trade and economic growth in China show a consistent development track and a strong correlation. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and both imports and exports have positive impacts on economic growth, but the later has a greater effect than the former. Exports and the economic growth share significant two-way granger causality, while imports are just the single-way granger causality of the export and the granger causality with economic growth is insignificant. Therefore, China should continue to promote the development of export trade, and attach more importance to the role of imports meanwhile.

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What this paper is about

Data of foreign trade and economic growth in China show a consistent development track and a strong correlation. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and both imports and exports have positive impacts on economic growth, but the later has a greater effect than the former. Exports and the economic growth share significant two-way granger causality, while imports are just the single-way granger causality of the export and the granger causality with economic growth is insignificant. Therefore, China should continue to promote the development of export trade, and attach more importance to the role of imports meanwhile.

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Available abstract

Data of foreign trade and economic growth in China show a consistent development track and a strong correlation. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, and both imports and exports have positive impacts on economic growth, but the later has a greater effect than the former. Exports and the economic growth share significant two-way granger causality, while imports are just the single-way granger causality of the export and the granger causality with economic growth is insignificant. Therefore, China should continue to promote the development of export trade, and attach more importance to the role of imports meanwhile.

Key concepts: Granger causality, Economics, China, Causality (physics), International economics, International trade, Export trade, Econometrics

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