Empirical Study on the Relationship between Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Gui-zhou Province
HU Xiao-jua
Abstract
HU Xiao-jua
Abstract
Although foreign trade is widely believed to have a positive effect on economic growth in domestic empirical studies,the research of whether foreign trade improves economic growth in the western undeveloped provinces is far from being well understood.Regarding the hypothesis offoreign trade improves economic growth,this paper employs the measurement of ADF test,co-integration test,causality test and vector error correction model to examine the relationship among GDP,import and export according to statistics of Gui-zhou province from 1978 to 2005.It proves that there has been a long-term equilibrium among import,export and economic growth.Economic growth respectively is import and export's Granger cause and there is mutual relationship between import and export.
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Although foreign trade is widely believed to have a positive effect on economic growth in domestic empirical studies,the research of whether foreign trade improves economic growth in the western undeveloped provinces is far from being well understood.Regarding the hypothesis offoreign trade improves economic growth,this paper employs the measurement of ADF test,co-integration test,causality test and vector error correction model to examine the relationship among GDP,import and export according to statistics of Gui-zhou province from 1978 to 2005.It proves that there has been a long-term equilibrium among import,export and economic growth.Economic growth respectively is import and export's Granger cause and there is mutual relationship between import and export.
Key concepts: Granger causality, Economics, Error correction model, Causality (physics), Economic integration, International economics, Empirical research, International trade