Verification for MM5 Pattern Precipitation Forecasts over Altay Region During the Flood Season from 2005 to 2008

The MM5 mesoscale numerical forecasting by used to examine precipitation forecast effect of the pattern in Altay region during the flood season from 2005 to 2008(May to Octomber).The result indicated that the MM5 pattern had high valuces for the precipitation qualitative forecast for the local area,specially the regional precipitation qualitative forecast.And the performance of MM5 pattern for local quota precipitation forecast quota precipitation forecast was not very ideal,which was better for light rain forecast than for the moderate rain and the drizzle,having non-forecast ability for heavy rain and rainstorm.