Application of synoptic verification in autumn and winter precipitation forecast of NWP model in Northeast China

Based on 12 h cumulated precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction(NWP) model in Northeast China and rainfall observation data from September 2007 to February 2008 as well as the classification of synoptic system,precipitation forecast products were verified by synoptic verification method in terms of intensity and position of precipitation center,intensity,falling areas,ranges and moving velocity of precipitation main body.The results indicate that precipitation forecast in autumn and winter is accurate based on NWP model.Forecast ability is different because of the difference of weather system and prediction time.Forecast to upper level trough is accurate.If forecast has deviation,it shows that the intensity of center and main body are commonly stronger,precipitation belt range is larger and moving velocity is slower than that of observation.