FROM THE JIASHI STRONG SWARM IN 1997-1998 TO THE BACHU-JIASHI-YUEPUHU EARTHQUAKES IN 2003 ——The characteristics of swarm evolution and the analyse of seismic tendency

Based on introducing mainly anomalous characteristics of Jiashi strong swarm in 1997—1998 and its apocalypse, we contrasted and analyzed identity and difference of Bachu-Jiashi-Yuepuhu earthquake sequence which main earthquake is M_S6.8 in 2003. We think that Bachu-Jiashi earthquake with M_S6.8 and Bachu-Jiashi-Yuepuhu earthquake with M_S5.8 are new rupture extension respectively towards direct SE and S of Tarim basin that 1997—1998 Jiashi strong swarm was located. Though they both don't contain each other, Bachu-Jiashi earthquake exists same creatures of Jiashi strong swarm extending outside. So, now 1997—1998 Jiashi strong swarm has evolved to the 1997—2003 Jiashi-Bachu-Yuepuhu strong swarm. By analyzing space extension migratory image and its characteristics of 3 earthquakes which magnitudes are much more, we estimated earthquake with M_S6.0 or so could occur in area around Jiashi in future. And gave possible site of earthquake and mid-short term tendency prediction. At last, we put up several questions that should be taken notice in emphasizing seismic monitoring and prediction of area.