Study on Rational Urban Land Scale in Jinan Based on Benefits Analysis

Urban land scale research closely related to land use benefits is one of the basic researches of urban socio-economic development strategy.The benefits of land use are important index to judge the level of land use and land scale.To a certain extent,it reflects the level of economic development and the land use intensity of the city.Using the ratio of the output values of the secondary and tertiary industries and the constructed area as a measure of urban land use benefits indicator,the article analyzes the relationship between scale and benefits of urban land to indicate the rationality of urban expansion by calculating the elasticity coefficient of urban land and the secondary and tertiary industries growth from 1997 to 2007 in Jinan.And Guangzhou,Nanjing,Qingdao,Beijing and Shanghai are selected as comparative objects to further analyze the future necessity for rational land use and the feasibility of urban expansion continuously in Jinan city by comparing the scale and benefits of urban land among these cities.Finally,the rational urban land scale of Jinan city in the future is predicted with the method of regression analysis,growth elasticity model and Logistic model.The results show that the rational urban land scale of Jinan city is 401 km2 in 2015 and 450 km2 in 2020 respectively.The research results can be for reference in Jinan land use planning.