An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Export Trade on Economic Growth in China

This paper applies Granger causality test and co-integration test to analyze the impact of our export trade on the economic growth of China with double variables and multi-variables based separately on the annual data and quarterly data of 1983-2003. Results show that there are no significant long-term stationary dynamic equilibrium relationships between the export trade and the economic growth. But there is feedback relationship of mutual causality between these two variables. It indicates that the current economic growth in China is export-oriented growth. This paper explains this phenomenon and puts forward some recommendations.