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Empirical Study on China's Export Trade and Economic Growth

Yan Zhou

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Abstract

This paper, through several econometric analysis methods such as linear regression, Granger Causality Test as well as covariance decomposition technology etc., gives an empirical study on the relationships between China's export and economic growth. And the conclusions are as follows: there exists positive correlation between China's export and economic growth, but it can't satisfy the Export-led Growth hypothesis; the increase in export is the important reason of economic growth; there exists certain time-lag in export trade when promoting economic growth, and the consumption time-lag is longer, investment time-lag is shorter compared with export. Based on the above conclusions, it gives the homologous policy suggestions.

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What this paper is about

This paper, through several econometric analysis methods such as linear regression, Granger Causality Test as well as covariance decomposition technology etc., gives an empirical study on the relationships between China's export and economic growth. And the conclusions are as follows: there exists positive correlation between China's export and economic growth, but it can't satisfy the Export-led Growth hypothesis; the increase in export is the important reason of economic growth; there exists certain time-lag in export trade when promoting economic growth, and the consumption time-lag is longer, investment time-lag is shorter compared with export. Based on the above conclusions, it gives the homologous policy suggestions.

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Available abstract

This paper, through several econometric analysis methods such as linear regression, Granger Causality Test as well as covariance decomposition technology etc., gives an empirical study on the relationships between China's export and economic growth. And the conclusions are as follows: there exists positive correlation between China's export and economic growth, but it can't satisfy the Export-led Growth hypothesis; the increase in export is the important reason of economic growth; there exists certain time-lag in export trade when promoting economic growth, and the consumption time-lag is longer, investment time-lag is shorter compared with export. Based on the above conclusions, it gives the homologous policy suggestions.

Key concepts: Granger causality, Economics, China, Lag, Causality (physics), Distributed lag, Investment (military), Empirical research

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