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2012•Journal of Wuxi Institute of CommerceRequires access

The Impact of RMB Exchange Rate on Trade Structure: An Empirical Study

Chen Fu-jion

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Abstract

Based on a theoretical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate on trade structure,this paper makes an empirical study of the relation between RMB exchange rate and export structure under the condition of appreciation of RMB exchange rate.The study shows that a long stable and balanced relation exists between RMB exchange rate and export structure,that Engel-Granger test indicates a one-way cause-effect relation exists between RMB exchange rate and export structure(that is,RMB exchange rate causes the change of export structure),and that VECM model shows 1% appreciation of RMB exchange rate would lead to 0.184787% optimization of export structure(MOE= 0.184787%),which means appreciation of RMB exchange rate will exerts significant effect on the optimization of export structure.

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What this paper is about

Based on a theoretical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate on trade structure,this paper makes an empirical study of the relation between RMB exchange rate and export structure under the condition of appreciation of RMB exchange rate.The study shows that a long stable and balanced relation exists between RMB exchange rate and export structure,that Engel-Granger test indicates a one-way cause-effect relation exists between RMB exchange rate and export structure(that is,RMB exchange rate causes the change of export structure),and that VECM model shows 1% appreciation of RMB exchange rate would lead to 0.184787% optimization of export structure(MOE= 0.184787%),which means appreciation of RMB exchange rate will exerts significant effect on the optimization of export structure.

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Available abstract

Based on a theoretical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate on trade structure,this paper makes an empirical study of the relation between RMB exchange rate and export structure under the condition of appreciation of RMB exchange rate.The study shows that a long stable and balanced relation exists between RMB exchange rate and export structure,that Engel-Granger test indicates a one-way cause-effect relation exists between RMB exchange rate and export structure(that is,RMB exchange rate causes the change of export structure),and that VECM model shows 1% appreciation of RMB exchange rate would lead to 0.184787% optimization of export structure(MOE= 0.184787%),which means appreciation of RMB exchange rate will exerts significant effect on the optimization of export structure.

Key concepts: Renminbi, Exchange rate, Economics, Effective exchange rate, Empirical research, International economics, Monetary economics, Econometrics

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